I am not sure that it is also natural thatThe London Institute is footnote in forecastingIn France I would probably be to the GovernmentThe right was acquired on a temporary basisAnd implicit but after that nothing is moreThe filter of globalization seems importantStill Waters is one of the best Japanese in KualaAt the same time the baroque that fascinates obeys its own lawsReferred to another thorny topic liquidity A good opportunity he says with spontaneityDespite the announcement of huge losses of Société Générale, almost $ 7 billion euros, the European stock markets have rebounded yesterday with force. After three days of decline, stock markets left growing on the old Continent, in the wake of Wall Street Wednesday and Asian seats. New York City, on the other hand, volatility long remained implementation, indices between increase, particularly under the influence of good results from Xerox and Lockheed, and decline. The Dow Jones is is finally awarded 0.88, to 12.378,61 points, while the Nasdaq Index ended up 1.92, to 2.360,92 points.
Result, the CAC 40 index climbed 6,01, closing at 4.915,29 points. Even the financial values have risen sharply, AXA and Dexia in the lead, despite the setbacks of the Société Générale. Thus, the Bank headed by Daniel button revealed fraud in its activity of brokerage of 4.9 billion euros and 2 billion euros of writedowns related to the "sub-prime" (see pages 33-35). But these historical losses have not destabilized operators. "We have witnessed a movement of technical rebound, in the wake of Wall Street, after several sessions of strong declines", commented Roman Boscher, Director of management actions in Groupama.
More easily that some strategists have started as early as Tuesday, to become offensive actions, advising a return to normal of allocation equity and reduction in part cash of portfolios. The corrections since the beginning of the year, from 13 to 20 in Europe and 12 to 16 in the United States and since the high points of 2007 even more, now seem them sufficient.
Fears of a recession in the United States, added to those concerning the fate of credit enhancers, after degradation of Ambac, led stock market panic early in the week. A movement that prompted the Federal Reserve to decide, in the Emergency Department, to reduce its rate by 75 basis points to 3.5 its largest expansion since October 1984. In this dark environment, the information that the American authorities are making pressure on banks that they agree to fly to the rescue of boosters of credit, through the creation of a Fund, put the balm to the heart of the investors. Similarly that the announcement of more good news on the macroeconomic front yesterday. Despite the difficulties of the US economy, China has announced growth of 11.2 of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Bad news in sight
However, the rebound on the stock markets seems fragile. "The markets will continue to be broken by bad news." "Anticipated for 2008 business results may be adjusted downward," said Romain Boscher. The financial crisis of the "sub-prime" appears, on the other hand, not having completed to damage. The sinking of the structured products market should result in a 300-400 billion total invoice, now believe the analysts. "Beyond banks, some"hedge funds"and pension funds will also be affected", said Roman Boscher. Finally, the bubble formed emerging markets, China and India, always threatens to explode.
Citigroup reviewed Wednesday to lower its objectives on the major US indices, 1.675 to 1,550 points on the S & P 500 and 15.100 to 13.950 points on the Dow Jones. "The pressures of the credit markets and actions induce a forecast of recession with a monetary or fiscal policy that will arrive too late to prevent roll-over, even if they should moderate intensity", justified Tobias Levkovich.
Goldman Sachs is however more cautious. Referring to the theme of recoupling of economies and fears about the financial sector, it was estimated Tuesday that it was too early to call for a reversal, feared an exaggeration of the markets down.
