After two months a report is sent to HRDSovereign in the spirit of Olivier Japiot it rhymes with landDoes that change the game with the seasons A million jobs have been generated on eBayAmerica it is less likely to procrastinateIt is not supported the idea of need helpWe continue our discussions with the unions in the coming weeksThus is the operation more also collegialAs a general rule this factor is positive7 its margin is more than 3 greater than theirIn economic matters, the worst is never safe. The growth of the Japan in the fourth quarter, that many experts expect the lowest finally proved better than expected. The Japan GDP grew by 0.9 between October and December from the previous three months and 3.7 in annualized pace, Tokyo said yesterday. A good performance mainly due to strong exports to China and emerging markets. The Japanese economy has thus made a performance better than in the third quarter ( 0.3, but 1.5 on an annualized basis). Growth for the whole of 2007 was 2.1, according to data from the services of the Prime Minister. A good number who made back fears of a recession.
The Japan guard not its problems. The archipelago suffers not from the US slowdown or even the crisis of the "subprime", but indeed of structural problems that weigh on domestic demand. In 2007, it contributed by 0.9 point to growth, net exports to height of 1.2 points.
Deflation persists
The household consumption remains the real black point. Tangible sign of the concerns of consumers, their satisfaction index released yesterday for the month of January is the lowest ever obtained in four and a half years! It is almost a paradox: at a time where companies from profits, the evolution of salaries remains slack ( 0.1 in 2007) sign a redistribution in dribs and drabs. And this is not finished: year end bonus declined by 3.3 compared to 2006.
If he had to prioritise the concerns of the population, the three would be "wages, the future and the evolution of the consumer price," said Atsushi Nakajima, Chief Economist at Mizuho Research Institute. Prices rose by 0.8 in December. But non-energy, evolution becomes negative 0.1. Deflation persists in the Japan then to the United States and Europe, inflation is more than 2.
There is not inevitable in this situation, essentially the Economist considers. For him, this is not a stimulus which needs Japan, but "of structural measures to boost the economy." According to him, "a rise in VAT, which is expected to increase 5 currently 10, is now essential for redistribution purposes." Similarly, advance the Economist, "it is necessary to lower the corporate tax rate of 10.
30 of temporary workers
These measures must be accompanied by various facilities for the population. Also a necessary political stimulus of the birth, the Economist suggested to "revise the regulation on the labour market." "There are too many temporary workers who are excluded from the pension system".
The Japan, where the unemployment rate is officially 3.9, temporary workers are approximately 30 of the active population. In twenty years, (1985-2006), the proportion of workers in open-ended contracts is more than 67 of the workforce (83.6 in 1985), while part-time employees now represent 22 (12.5 in 1985) and temporary workers 8.1 (3.9 in 1985). Japanese law allows companies to use labour from time to time, without payment of social security contributions.
If the authorities want to boost their economy, "they must therefore grooming pensions and to ensure that the minimum age is funded 100 by tax and not 30 as is the case currently, advance Economist, while stressing that the project is to increase to 50 in 2009 the share of tax.
The situation is therefore largely a political will. Only, with the prospect of general elections in 2008, according to a timetable which remains to be determined, it is feared that these reforms should be postponed. And, no doubt, beyond 2008.
