But endurance is primarily a matter of trainingThese perspectives are what cool investors4 throughout the year ended January 31 20082 in volume on the last three months of 2007The procedure of dismissal in effect two stepsIt was not to be reconciled with his creatureThey should return to the common law the following yearNaturally as if he could not do otherwise5 it creates 5000 jobs private per yearOfficially the Government has not chosenThe debate on the institutions burst into the campaign by an unexpected bias. Before the rise of François Bayrou in the polls, the UMP and PS light the fuse of the "institutional crisis": in case of victory of the candidate of the UDF, the France would become ungovernable or majority in the National Assembly. The argument is advanced with a tweezers. Voters have trouble to focus on discussions that seem theoretical, and the threat of an institutional crisis in Europe has not prevented the "no" to the Constitution prevailed. Nevertheless, the question arises.
The UDF is no longer a "major party" Government and a lack of the mesh of elected officials necessary to obtain a genuine parliamentary seat. The institutional balances of the Fifth Republic, it is a heavy handicap. François Bayrou also understood by announcing the creation, if elected, to a large "party Democrat", to address the legislative elections with candidates "might" presidential majority.
Little power without majority
"Contrary to what one would think, the primacy of the President of the Republic in the Fifth Republic is commensurate with the parliamentary support," says the Professor of public law Guy Carcassonne. In clear, without majority in Parliament, the head of State has little power. Is - for as much as the France would become ungovernable Nothing is less sure.
Three scenarios compete. First assumption: François Bayrou succeeds his bet. The President's Party wins the parliamentary elections, is found in a classic schema of the Ve Republic but with a mixed majority of a new genus, although it said Nur of de Gaulle in 1958. It is not clear that the French, after being sensitive to the speech "neither right nor left" centrist leader, not choose a "traditional" candidate in their constituency But some constitutional experts want to believe: "Why the French vote differently a few days." "The reform of the quinquennium and inversion of the calendar have been made to ensure the consistency of the vote to the President of the Republic", provides the Constitutionalist Dominique Chagnollaud, who believes in a presidential Dynamics (read the topic ideas page 19).
Delete article 49-3
Another hypothesis: the Party of François Bayrou is very far from the majority and the PS and UMP are roughly equal to Assembly game. The situation then resemble the period 1988-1991, where Michel Rocard, then Prime Minister of François Mitterrand, was that of a relative majority in the Assembly with the sole Socialist Party (he lacked 16 voice). He used to build a majority from time to time. And because it has used to lie article 49-3 (which allows the Government to move in force) is using 28 times in three years, a record. And if François Bayrou deletes this article, as he has promised as part of a reform of the institutions, it will then find a solution to be able to pass his texts.
Finally, scenario: the UMP or the PS won the majority in the National Assembly. The situation would be no more and no less than a cohabitation: François Bayrou would be bound to choose a Prime Minister from the majority.
Finally, the story is not new, it is repeated, showing the faculties of adaptation of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic for optimists, its inevitable end for others.
