Of course they shared a passion for wine8 million units marketed in France last yearThe current valuation level is attractive the Elimination of odours tobacco benzene ammoniaEven if democracy is still far from perfectIt is looking the best cost per hour of R DThis year the grant that provide MPM will reach EUR 151 million 275 billion of writedowns in the fourth quarterFinally it must be temporary which is often ignoredThe opinion of the central bankers reassure notLocal or policy, the municipal election of 9 and 16 March "Intermediate elections", responds with wisdom, political scientist Jean-Luc Parodi. In its very ambiguity, the expression is a perfect accuracy. The choice of a mayor obey both local management settings to partisan judgments influenced by the political context. Chronologically, the municipal election is also intermediate allowing voters to send a "message" to the rulers between two national elections.
Must specify the weighting between these local and national components. French electoral history distinguishes two types of configurations. First, it is the municipal of discontent. Victim of unpopularity, national power is endorsed on the back of the candidates who have the misfortune to claim political colour. National logic scans local considerations. With this phenomenon, the left was able to capture three quarters of the cities in 1977. Symmetrically, the right took the rejection of the Socialist Government to become majority in one half of the urban France in 1983.
And then there is the pacified municipal elections. Power enjoys a Honourable popularity, his opponents struggle to mobilize voters, and the verdict of the ballot box is indexed on the specific performance of local elected officials. Of mayors change camp but the balance of the parties does not appear powerful wave. At worst, but it is the law of the kind of a trend democracy, the Government camp loses a few feathers. In 1989, 1995 and 2001, the local logic prevailed even if the national balance sheet is translated differently depending on the contexts of the time. In the wake of the election of Jacques Chirac in the spring of 1995, the right has consolidated its municipal positions. In 2001, on the other hand, the relative decline in the popularity of Lionel Jospin has reduced local implantation of the left.
Note the asymmetry of voting behaviour. When the Government is unpopular, it is ruthlessly punished at the ballot box. If it is still appreciated, the voter does not punish, but does little reward. The set of intermediate elections, power has much to lose and little to gain.
All indicators are now in the red for Nicolas Sarkozy. Popularity became negative in all recent surveys: 14 for TNS-Sofres, CSA, 15 5 for the FIFG. Two months of the election, the judgment on the Executive is not as harsh as in the previous decades. But consider the earliness and the speed of the diving in the unpopularity of the head of State. With the exception of Jacques Chirac in 1995, no President of the Fifth Republic had known as early after his election the public against.
That is, the strangeness of the choice of "politicizing" the vote by Nicolas Sarkozy. An unpublished and assumed option in some confusion. In September 2007, the Elysee ensured that municipal battles were local gasoline. A few months later, sensing his opponents decided to seize the deadline to weaken, the President of the Republic opted for a politicization of the vote March hoping to mobilize the electorate of right. After having entrusted did not want to meddle "in the detail of the municipal", however, he confirmed his intention to "give a political dimension."
Highly disputed within the UMP, the commitment of the Executive in the municipal battle is high risk. This table establishes the strong relationship between the popularity of the Executive and the result of the candidates of the national majority in municipal elections. Local particularities does no guarantee that this context will give birth to a true pink wave. But we understand that the UMP candidates keep usually, they seek to politicize these games.
